Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6bf2…eade other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+11%) realized +$97 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$59
sports 34% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 43% +43.4%
≤30d 7 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 43% +43.4%
≤90d 7 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 43% +43.4%
all 7 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 43% +43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 43% +43.4%
10% -37.7% 43% +29.7%
15% -43.7% 43% +17.1%
20% -49.2% 43% +5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$9 · ×8.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.55 per $1 lost it wins $6.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $94 +$97 +103%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 +$88 +64%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $61 +$40 +66%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.05 · official $205.85 · 16 history records