Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6bf1…7ea7 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$420 (+4%) realized +$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$879per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$400
sports 4% +$40
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 83% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 83% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 83% 50% -6.0%
all 12 -6.1% -15.0% 83% 50% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 50% -6.0%
10% -23.1% 8% -15.0%
15% -30.6% 8% -23.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.3 per $1 lost it wins $21.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$879
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $366 +$35 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $351 +$18 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $335 +$14 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$7 +13%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 +$6 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,001 +$352 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $366 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $351 4h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $335 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 65¢ $20 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $50 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $50 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $60 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $60 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $60 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $10,352 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $10,001 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.28 · official $50.28 (match) · 23 history records