Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6bef…5e49 sports 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$11,686 (-3%) realized −$6,453 · open −$5,233
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%77W / 57L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,678per market
Trades / day64.3pace
Fees−$4,490est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$28,176
other 12% +$10,060
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +35.7% +22.8% 49% 45% -23.7%
≤30d 134 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% -12.9%
≤90d 134 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% -12.9%
all 134 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 49% -12.9%
10% +10.0% 46% -21.2%
15% ← realistic here -0.6% 42% -28.8%
20% -10.4% 37% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$3,361) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,735 vs −$2,570 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$9,770
Realized−$6,453
Unrealized−$5,233
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses77 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$4,490
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage20d
Avg bet$2,678
Trades / day64.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 95¢ 95¢ $9,760 $9,765 +$5 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 0¢ $5,243 $6 −$5,238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4,465 $0 -0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7,516 +$5,020 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,588 +$1,007 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,930 +$2,846 +72%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $560 +$1,010 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $12,370 +$12,902 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,381 −$2,381 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2,479 −$2,427 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $6,929 −$6,929 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11,129 −$11,129 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $14,396 −$14,396 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $19,596 −$19,596 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $94 +$4 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9,447 −$142 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10,000 +$10,000 +100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,090 +$534 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9,504 −$9,504 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $569 −$569 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $19,152 −$19,152 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,202 +$10,082 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $800 +$9,200 +1150%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11,505 +$6,177 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $464 −$464 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9,696 −$9,228 -95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6,812 +$5,138 +75%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,403 −$3,403 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $309 +$366 +119%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,151 +$1,558 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $407 +$203 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,473 +$1,332 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10,080 −$10,080 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,920 −$289 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $852 −$852 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5,682 −$5,682 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $901 −$573 -64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $831 −$674 -81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $949 −$949 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $584 −$584 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $176 +$661 +376%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,177 −$1,177 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $532 +$577 +108%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,166 +$1,410 +121%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $776 +$462 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $858 +$3,042 +354%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $586 +$3,074 +525%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $947 +$613 +65%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $14,404 +$6,471 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 95¢ $3,824 17m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $72 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $182 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $4,027 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $911 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $273 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $46 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $866 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $503 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $364 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $182 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $54 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $26 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $67 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $54 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $109 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $36 18m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $109 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $182 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $62 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $456 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $113 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $72 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $182 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $91 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,770.31 · official $9,770.31 (match) · 1446 history records