Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bee…7e78
weather · 324 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$912 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$946 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$460
Realized−$946
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses64 / 497
Open positions35
Markets (closed)561 / 324
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day373.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 35 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,186
7 days−$1,883
14 days−$946
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $57 $81 +$24 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $49 $51 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $44 $39 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $21 $35 +$14 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 1¢ 100¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+9895%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on April 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 23? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 3? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 20? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 23? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 21? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 1? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on May 10? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30? Jun 12 $20 −$22 -115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 520 -47.8% -52.8% 10% 10% -47.7%
≤30d 561 -44.8% -50.0% 11% 11% -26.5%
≤90d 561 -44.8% -50.0% 11% 11% -26.5%
all 561 -44.8% -50.0% 11% 11% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover373.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.0% 11% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -54.8% 10% -33.5%
15% -59.2% 9% -40.0%
20% -63.2% 9% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.11 · official $458.08 (match) · 3500 history records