Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bed…b1fe world 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,301 (+1%) realized +$2,554 · open +$747
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate82%95W / 21L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,714per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$23,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1,905
other 26% +$654
crypto 9% +$211
tech 6% +$251
politics 0% −$22
sports 0% −$5
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.4% -7.4% 83% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 27% -8.4%
≤90d 55 +7.8% -2.4% 87% 18% -9.0%
all 116 +2.0% -7.7% 82% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 16% -8.5%
10% -16.5% 9% -17.3%
15% -24.6% 8% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$562 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$23,229
Realized+$2,554
Unrealized+$747
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses95 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)116 / 135
History coverage591d
Avg bet$1,714
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $6,099 $6,606 +$508 (+8%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,434 $5,552 +$119 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,090 $5,187 +$98 (+2%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,617 $1,640 +$24 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,250 $1,278 +$28 (+2%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 88¢ $1,044 $980 −$64 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $805 $793 −$12 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $245 $367 +$122 (+50%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $234 $236 +$1 (+1%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $206 $215 +$9 (+4%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $224 $156 −$68 (-30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $115 $93 −$22 (-19%)
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 91¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $744 −$71 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $570 +$30 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $795 +$10 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $675 +$32 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $530 +$6 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $134 +$15 +11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2,305 +$49 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,470 +$20 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 27 $974 +$27 +3%
Centurion: Patrick Zahraj vs Giles Hussey May 25 $22 +$3 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar May 25 $19 +$2 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $14 +$6 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 23 $4,293 +$49 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $820 +$20 +2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 08 $113 +$13 +12%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French p May 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 01 $480 +$68 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $2,924 +$27 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 30 $784 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $4,334 +$46 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 30 $2,290 +$23 +1%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 29 $1,908 +$43 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 29 $4,294 +$58 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 28 $2,286 +$86 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 28 $167 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 27 $284 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 26 $7,611 −$958 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 25 $443 +$5 +1%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $809 +$16 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $31 +$22 +71%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $8,907 −$8,880 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3,054 +$3,704 +121%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $1,249 +$5,694 +456%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $2,000 +$28 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $63 +$3 +6%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $58 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 05 $4,370 +$50 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $200 +$2 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $4,851 +$55 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $300 +$1 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $56 +$22 +39%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $11,601 +$65 +1%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 01 $11 −$2 -21%
Megaquake by March 31? Apr 01 $619 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $130 1h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 88¢ $13 1h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 88¢ $53 1h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 89¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $203 7h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 88¢ $53 7h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 88¢ $53 7h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 88¢ $98 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $66 24h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 83¢ $66 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $101 26h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 84¢ $101 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $86 26h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 85¢ $85 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $786 42h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 76¢ $111 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $674 46h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 93¢ $214 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $180 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $475 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $89 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $17 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $570 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $472 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $224 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $189 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 93¢ $310 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 91¢ $51 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $148 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,228.76 · official $23,228.62 (match) · 1442 history records