Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6beb…441c other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 15% +$9
politics 10% −$6
sports 3% +$124
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +3.0% -6.8% 23% 17% -8.3%
all 72 +4.0% -5.9% 26% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 18% -9.0%
10% -14.9% 18% -17.7%
15% -23.1% 15% -25.7%
20% -30.7% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage609d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 49¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $23 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $10 +$17 +158%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $342 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $350 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $11 +$8 +72%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $8 +$11 +138%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 02 $26 +$23 +91%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $26 +$13 +52%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 30 $30 +$16 +52%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $22 +$22 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $7 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 26h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 28h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 44h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 47h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.95 · official $116.95 (match) · 297 history records