Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6be9…17a9 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+4%) realized +$154 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%54W / 26L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$210
14 days−$90
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$186
other 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 36% -28.4%
≤30d 80 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 51% -6.3%
≤90d 80 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 51% -6.3%
all 80 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 51% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 51% -6.3%
10% -19.7% 38% -15.3%
15% -27.5% 22% -23.5%
20% -34.6% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses54 / 26
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage27d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Minnesota Lynx 30¢ 42¢ $62 $85 +$24 (+38%)
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $202 +$38 +19%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $160 −$43 -27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $95 +$6 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$7 -39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 14 $292 −$38 -13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $183 −$163 -89%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $300 +$64 +21%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $70 +$5 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $89 +$10 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $198 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $5 +$5 +92%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $90 +$3 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +24%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $8 +$2 +25%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $249 +$28 +11%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $240 +$10 +4%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $10 −$7 -67%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $108 +$3 +3%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $13 −$5 -38%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $192 +$7 +4%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $120 +$19 +16%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$5 -57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $9 +$2 +18%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $194 +$6 +3%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 +$3 +62%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $11 +$5 +46%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 +$6 +119%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $9 +$1 +11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $151 +$52 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 30¢ $29 7m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 30¢ $32 7m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 30¢ $1 7m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 99¢ $110 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 90¢ $100 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 48¢ $130 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 36¢ $102 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL New York Liberty 59¢ $117 2h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 80¢ $160 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 10h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide SELL Dalibor Svrcina 6¢ $1 11h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 90¢ $70 11h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 90¢ $20 11h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 21¢ $5 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 40¢ $2 16h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Ilbirs eSports 49¢ $19 5d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 50¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Ilbirs eSports 55¢ $27 5d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 40¢ $18 5d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 40¢ $2 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $10 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $7 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 32¢ $10 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 80¢ $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $1 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 1¢ $3 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 10¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.26 · official $86.26 (match) · 247 history records