Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be9…b918 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$125 (-17%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%28W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$82
other 5% −$3
politics 4% −$30
tech 2% −$16
sports 2% +$4
world 1% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -6.8%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 22 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 23% -20.1%
all 89 -28.5% -35.3% 31% 27% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 27% -27.1%
10% -41.5% 24% -34.0%
15% -47.1% 19% -40.4%
20% -52.3% 16% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage193d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $4 $0 -7%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 28 $25 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 28 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $3 +$11 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10AM ET Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 21 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 21 $8 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3PM ET Jan 21 $9 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 21 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7AM ET Jan 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2AM ET Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 21 $2 +$5 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 21 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 21 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4AM ET Jan 21 $2 +$6 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3AM ET Jan 21 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6PM ET Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 19m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 26m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 46d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.86 · official $10.86 (match) · 256 history records