Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be6…d88e other 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +34.9% +22.0% 16% 16% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +34.9% +22.0% 16% 16% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +34.9% +22.0% 16% 16% -9.5%
all 19 +34.9% +22.0% 16% 16% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.0% 16% -9.5%
10% +10.4% 16% -18.2%
15% -0.3% 16% -26.1%
20% -10.1% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$11 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records