Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be4…dcbb world 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$629 (-6%) realized −$656 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate76%216W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$30
14 days−$76
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$663
other 22% +$58
politics 10% +$36
sports 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$25
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.8% +3.0% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 39 +5.5% -4.5% 64% 54% -7.8%
≤90d 136 +4.4% -5.5% 67% 49% -5.9%
all 284 +1.1% -8.5% 76% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 36% -15.4%
10% -17.3% 19% -23.5%
15% -25.3% 11% -30.9%
20% -32.6% 5% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses216 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)284 / 292
History coverage206d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $36 $54 +$18 (+50%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 80¢ 92¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? No 82¢ 91¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+10%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 26 $40 +$92 +226%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 21 $48 −$19 -40%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $106 +$25 +23%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $98 −$22 -23%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $78 −$34 -44%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 19 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $54 +$23 +43%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 19 $67 −$60 -89%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $54 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$47 -51%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 17 $60 +$30 +50%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$17 -41%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $47 +$22 +48%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $42 +$6 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $102 −$78 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $43 +$22 +51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $45 −$12 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 −$5 -8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $76 +$20 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $166 +$19 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $31 +$13 +43%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $31 +$13 +41%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $31 +$15 +50%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $36 +$3 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $40 +$13 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $126 +$22 +18%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 08 $189 +$39 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $76 +$8 +11%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 03 $42 +$16 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 +$5 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $58 +$30 +52%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $139 +$8 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? May 25 $22 −$17 -77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? May 24 $26 −$2 -8%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? May 24 $56 +$17 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $173 −$5 -3%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 23 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 23 $27 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 80¢ $0 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 80¢ $16 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 80¢ $24 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $132 7h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 3d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 9¢ $19 5d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY Yes 16¢ $48 5d
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 6d
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 6d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 11¢ $44 6d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes 20¢ $60 6d
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 76¢ $46 6d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 7d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 7d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 7d
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.39 · official $297.39 (match) · 1241 history records