Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be4…1f20 sports 461 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,428 (-3%) realized −$6,306 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%225W / 233L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1,597est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$2,544
14 days+$2,533
30 days+$4,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$3,729
world 18% −$3,988
politics 9% −$145
other 4% +$86
crypto 0% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.5% +6.3% 55% 41% +14.7%
≤30d 106 +10.4% -0.2% 53% 44% -3.2%
≤90d 399 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 41% -15.2%
all 458 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -12.3%
10% -19.0% 37% -20.7%
15% -26.8% 29% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$244 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$4,020
Realized−$6,306
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses225 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,597
Open positions3
Markets (closed)458 / 461
History coverage178d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $3,296 $3,163 −$133 (-4%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 85¢ $844 $854 +$10 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $500 −$6 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,868 +$523 +18%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $1,071 −$56 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $480 −$60 -12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,554 +$1,946 +125%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$2 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $217 +$82 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $373 +$7 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $375 −$49 -13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $64 +$41 +64%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$8 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$111 +510%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$22 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $267 −$265 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $157 +$43 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $365 +$885 +242%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,807 +$53 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $150 +$350 +233%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $558 +$214 +38%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $28,000 +$185 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $182 +$18 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $328 −$12 -4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $99 −$98 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $204 +$174 +85%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $264 +$236 +90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $633 +$244 +38%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $392 −$80 -20%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $210 −$58 -27%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,052 +$399 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $408 −$281 -69%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1,702 −$180 -11%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $281 −$276 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 31 $53 +$147 +276%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 31 $270 +$230 +85%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $911 +$194 +21%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,483 −$1,174 -47%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $135 −$135 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $494 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 14h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $936 21h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 96¢ $959 21h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 20¢ $80 21h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 28¢ $112 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $420 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $36 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $238 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $242 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $3,308 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $759 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $86 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $155 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,830 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $170 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $34 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $102 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $16 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $13 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $52 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $75 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $59 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $62 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $4 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $95 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,020.01 · official $4,020.01 (match) · 1995 history records