Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be3…6566 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,311 (-13%) realized −$1,394 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$15
other 38% −$953
world 3% −$298
crypto 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 46% -22.4%
≤30d 39 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 46% -22.4%
≤90d 39 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 46% -22.4%
all 39 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 46% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 46% -22.4%
10% -27.4% 46% -29.8%
15% -34.4% 41% -36.6%
20% -40.8% 36% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$241 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$1,394
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 69¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 42¢ $122 $145 +$23 (+19%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 74¢ $55 $75 +$20 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $97 +$98 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $382 −$377 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Pedro Neto: 3+ shots Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$210 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $239 +$214 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $196 +$107 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $272 +$93 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$533 +105%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $102 +$170 +167%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $586 +$141 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $354 +$229 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $255 −$250 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$202 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $79 +$84 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$262 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $81 +$85 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $462 −$462 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $345 +$524 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $767 −$767 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $508 +$533 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $44 +$65 +150%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 +$27 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $125 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $56 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $195 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $97 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $81 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $382 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 30h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $77 30h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $153 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $254 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $203 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $253 30h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY Yes 62¢ $152 30h
Pedro Neto: 3+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $152 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $239 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,041 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $272 45h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $272 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $196 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $253 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $354 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $728 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $583 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $586 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $354 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.02 · official $460.05 (match) · 75 history records