Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6be2…f1ee crypto 859 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate81%694W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$27
other 3% −$7
world 0% +$5
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.2% -12.4% 81% 52% -12.3%
≤30d 394 +2.3% -7.4% 82% 61% -7.3%
≤90d 858 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 56% -10.4%
all 858 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 56% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 56% -10.4%
10% -17.5% 32% -19.0%
15% -25.5% 14% -26.8%
20% -32.8% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses694 / 164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)858 / 859
History coverage88d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 74¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.12 · official $1.96 (match) · 1690 history records