Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be0…9a61 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$21
politics 30% −$22
sports 19% −$9
world 4% −$7
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
finance 3% −$2
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 61 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 104 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.8%
all 115 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage97d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 13 $103 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$2 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $55 −$2 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $158 −$3 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $159 −$2 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $61 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 07 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 06 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $337 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $829 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $59 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $107 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $38 37m
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 15h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $48 16h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $48 20h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 21h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 29h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 30h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 36h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $48 37h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $48 45h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $53 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $53 3d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 3d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $11 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $49 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $49 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 95¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.49 · official $37.49 (match) · 456 history records