Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bde…f53e other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-17%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$7
sports 19% +$2
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.6% -21.9% 25% 25% -24.6%
≤30d 20 -13.6% -21.9% 25% 25% -24.6%
≤90d 20 -13.6% -21.9% 25% 25% -24.6%
all 20 -13.6% -21.9% 25% 25% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 25% -24.6%
10% -29.3% 25% -31.8%
15% -36.2% 25% -38.4%
20% -42.4% 25% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 11h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records