Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bdb…4496
other · 686 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$9,198 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,019 · open −$829
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$39,869
Realized+$10,019
Unrealized−$829
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses504 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions132
Markets (closed)554 / 686
Avg bet$379
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 132 History 554 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$91
14 days+$394
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $6,272 $6,367 +$94 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,800 $3,936 +$136 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,850 $2,974 +$124 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $2,300 $2,388 +$88 (+4%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,900 $1,897 −$3 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,182 +$182 (+18%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $1,000 $938 −$62 (-6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $833 −$167 (-17%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $578 $588 +$9 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $544 −$456 (-46%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $525 −$475 (-47%)
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 95¢ 100¢ $473 $499 +$26 (+6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,000 $495 −$505 (-50%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 95¢ 91¢ $475 $456 −$19 (-4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $378 $395 +$17 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 97¢ 94¢ $340 $328 −$11 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? No 95¢ 100¢ $285 $300 +$15 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 97¢ $290 $291 +$1 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $290 +$2 (+1%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? No 76¢ 66¢ $304 $266 −$38 (-12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $244 $248 +$4 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 99¢ $175 $247 +$72 (+41%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $244 $244 −$1 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 97¢ $156 $243 +$87 (+56%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $244 $243 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $136 −$83 -61%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $89 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $84 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $144 +$5 +4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $117 +$33 +28%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $149 −$80 -54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $93 +$7 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $138 +$12 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $234 −$181 -77%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $62 +$3 +4%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 04 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $957 +$43 +4%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $163 +$7 +4%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $141 +$9 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $221 −$220 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $219 −$217 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $322 +$90 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jerse Jun 03 $280 +$20 +7%
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Jun 03 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $64 +$3 +5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $116 +$34 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $57 +$3 +5%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $221 +$29 +13%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 02 $95 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $232 +$18 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $114 +$36 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Jun 01 $212 +$15 +7%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $79 +$21 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $145 +$5 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $132 +$18 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $124 +$26 +20%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $147 +$3 +2%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $128 +$22 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $131 −$105 -80%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $145 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$1,270
world 24% +$1,304
politics 11% −$165
culture 6% +$4,924
crypto 6% +$1,408
economics 5% −$237
finance 4% +$731
sports 3% −$75
tech 3% +$2
weather 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $244 2h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $88 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 98¢ $216 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 98¢ $167 2h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $244 2h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $244 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $290 2h
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $131 2h
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 94¢ $132 2h
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $107 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $144 2h
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 2h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 96¢ $239 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $118 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $193 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 27¢ $53 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $82 26h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 90¢ $136 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $0 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $0 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $16 26h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $89 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $127 26h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 93¢ $140 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 95¢ $285 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $112 26h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 5¢ $434 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $614 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.6% -13.7% 82% 9% -16.2%
≤30d 146 +2.2% -7.5% 89% 27% -8.4%
≤90d 543 +8.6% -1.8% 91% 11% -5.1%
all 554 +9.0% -1.4% 91% 11% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 11% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -14.5%
15% -19.5% 3% -22.8%
20% -27.4% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,868.91 · official $39,863.71 (match) · 3500 history records