Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bdb…6a0d crypto 99 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-8%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day150.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -21.8% -29.2% 29% 21% -26.7%
≤30d 99 -17.8% -25.6% 31% 24% -21.6%
≤90d 99 -17.8% -25.6% 31% 24% -21.6%
all 99 -17.8% -25.6% 31% 24% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 24% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 17% -29.1%
15% -39.2% 12% -36.0%
20% -45.2% 11% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day150.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$80 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 959 history records