trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 24 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 25 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | Apr 11 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| Spurs vs. Grizzlies | Mar 26 | $242 | +$18 | +8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | Mar 10 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | Mar 05 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 | Feb 26 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 | Feb 21 | $71 | +$69 | +96% |
| Bruins vs. Stars | Jan 25 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Stars vs. Capitals | Jan 10 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Cavaliers | Jan 03 | $42 | +$19 | +45% |
| Jets vs. Avalanche | Dec 21 | $26 | +$12 | +45% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 12 | $28 | +$2 | +8% |
| Navy vs. Memphis | Dec 04 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Suns | Nov 25 | $9 | +$15 | +156% |
| Arkansas vs. LSU | Nov 18 | $17 | +$10 | +56% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -11.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -11.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 57% | 0% | -5.6% |
| all | 19 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 53% | 26% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.2% | 26% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -26.0% | 26% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 26% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -39.7% | 16% | -34.1% |