Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bd4…98c6 crypto 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-4%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%174W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$302
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 57% -13.7%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 57% -13.7%
≤90d 153 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 46% -14.3%
all 329 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 43% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -14.0%
10% -23.2% 35% -22.3%
15% -30.6% 26% -29.8%
20% -37.4% 20% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses174 / 155
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)329 / 329
History coverage101d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 329 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +104%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 26 $399 −$395 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $362 +$37 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 26 $276 +$86 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 26 $207 +$73 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 26 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 26 $110 −$100 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 26 $104 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 26 $100 −$52 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 26 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 26 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 26 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 26 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 26 $168 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 26 $290 +$40 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 26 $249 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 26 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 26 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 26 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 25 $137 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 25 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 24 $7 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 24 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 24 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 24 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 24 $1 +$5 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 24 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $399 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $399 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $362 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $362 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $276 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1037 history records