Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6bcc…f8b2 other 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 758d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$533 (-1%) realized −$540 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%215W / 312L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$267
14 days+$247
30 days+$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,325
culture 35% +$393
sports 15% −$864
world 8% +$23
politics 2% +$33
crypto 1% +$50
tech 0% +$69
economics 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.8% +14.7% 100% 80% +18.4%
≤30d 12 -18.8% -26.5% 58% 50% +17.3%
≤90d 81 -15.4% -23.4% 48% 44% -17.3%
all 527 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 39% -12.2%
10% -20.0% 35% -20.6%
15% -27.7% 28% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$65 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

758d coverage
Net worth$2,644
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses215 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)527 / 536
History coverage758d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $1,171 $1,189 +$18 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $320 $329 +$9 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $234 $245 +$11 (+5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $220 $244 +$24 (+11%)
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No 78¢ 68¢ $235 $202 −$33 (-14%)
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? No 67¢ 98¢ $102 $149 +$47 (+46%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 12¢ 81¢ $20 $138 +$118 (+590%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 17¢ 6¢ $300 $107 −$193 (-64%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 18 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $243 +$81 +33%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $265 +$106 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 +$70 +34%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 30 $134 +$102 +76%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Will AJ Brown be traded? May 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $162 +$105 +65%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $50 +$34 +69%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $50 +$59 +119%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $278 −$157 -56%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $99 +$51 +51%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $204 −$51 -25%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $178 +$3 +2%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $132 +$50 +38%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $140 +$67 +48%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$167 +335%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $173 +$101 +58%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $185 +$99 +54%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $181 +$122 +68%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $436 −$85 -20%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $304 +$94 +31%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $155 +$302 +195%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $319 −$311 -97%
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $61 +$51 +84%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $50 +$69 +138%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $198 −$52 -26%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $102 +$50 +49%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $193 +$70 +36%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $396 −$105 -26%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $323 +$48 +15%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $300 +$78 +26%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $303 +$101 +34%
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $450 +$128 +28%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $365 −$358 -98%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $186 −$180 -97%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 15 $54 −$52 -98%
Will Cyprus come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,182 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 81¢ $24 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY No 5¢ $21 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY No 3¢ $26 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 75¢ $113 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY Yes 62¢ $84 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $324 11d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 68¢ $222 14d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $236 15d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 15d
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 20d
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 20d
Will AJ Brown be traded? BUY No 3¢ $21 22d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY No 56¢ $134 25d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 25d
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $162 26d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Perry 67¢ $140 32d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 32d
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 32d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 66¢ $102 32d
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $173 32d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 32d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 19¢ $104 32d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 11¢ $104 32d
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 28¢ $104 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,644.19 · official $2,644.19 (match) · 1116 history records