trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +169.9% | +144.2% | 30% | 30% | +159.2% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +160.4% | +135.6% | 42% | 42% | +133.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +160.4% | +135.6% | 42% | 42% | +133.1% |
| all | 28 | +22.9% | +11.2% | 25% | 25% | +21.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +11.2% | 25% | +21.4% |
| 10% | +0.6% | 21% | +9.8% |
| 15% | -9.1% | 18% | -0.8% |
| 20% | -18.0% | 14% | -10.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | Yes | 54¢ | 57¢ | $300 | $316 | +$16 (+5%) |
| Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 21¢ | 22¢ | $100 | $102 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $96 | −$4 (-4%) |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $95 | −$5 (-5%) |
| Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $80 | $63 | −$17 (-21%) |
| Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | Yes | 36¢ | 24¢ | $50 | $33 | −$17 (-35%) |
| Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 22¢ | $10 | $14 | +$4 (+38%) |
| Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 18¢ | $10 | $14 | +$4 (+36%) |
| Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 25¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 24¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-61%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $103 | +$1,008 | +982% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $21 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $301 | +$131 | +44% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $21 | +$282 | +1374% |
| Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $102 | +$168 | +165% |
| Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? | Jun 04 | $199 | +$120 | +60% |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Mar 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Mar 14 | $47 | −$47 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 14 | $44 | −$44 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Mar 14 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Mar 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Clippers | Jan 01 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) | Jan 01 | $57 | −$57 | -100% |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-01? | Jan 01 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-01? | Jan 01 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $546 | −$363 | -66% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Dec 30 | $130 | −$87 | -67% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $125 | −$16 | -13% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 22 | $40 | +$13 | +34% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 22 | $235 | +$42 | +18% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Dec 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Dec 19 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |