Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bc9…de11 other 127 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 34% −$4
sports 13% +$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -2.3% -11.6% 6% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×11.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage124d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $142 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $140 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 22d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 22d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 23d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 23d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 25d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.00 · official $13.00 (match) · 365 history records