Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6bc9…ab64 crypto 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,667 (+136%) realized +$18,665 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%113W / 236L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,208
7 days+$4,539
14 days+$12,566
30 days+$13,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$13,538
crypto 39% +$4,936
world 6% −$44
politics 5% $0
other 3% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +306.8% +268.1% 36% 36% +109.6%
≤30d 70 +190.1% +162.5% 33% 33% +140.6%
≤90d 167 +172.5% +146.6% 48% 45% +132.6%
all 349 +89.5% +71.4% 32% 30% +122.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.4% 30% +122.6%
10% +55.0% 28% +101.3%
15% +40.1% 26% +81.8%
20% +26.3% 25% +64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +159% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +196% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$35 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,550
Realized+$18,665
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses113 / 236
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions4
Markets (closed)349 / 353
History coverage101d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $700 $700 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $650 $654 +$4 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 +$259 +6900%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $23 +$293 +1255%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $101 −$77 -76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $170 +$50 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $118 +$30 +25%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $140 +$860 +614%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$220 +880%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$410 +1284%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $37 +$655 +1760%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $670 −$670 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $300 +$4,196 +1398%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $593 −$593 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $4 +$28 +643%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $0 +$1 +900%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $105 +$759 +723%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $135 −$135 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $105 −$105 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $522 +$7,870 +1508%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $70 +$920 +1314%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $48 +$218 +450%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $120 −$118 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $40 +$157 +390%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 70¢ $263 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 5h
Trump goes to space in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $701 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 4¢ $120 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 6¢ $120 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 95¢ $52 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 95¢ $189 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 95¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 95¢ $57 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $23 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 11¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 11¢ $100 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 11¢ $115 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $70 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 7¢ $40 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 10¢ $56 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 7¢ $30 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 10¢ $44 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 5¢ $148 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,550.20 · official $1,550.20 (match) · 1623 history records