Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bc5…33d3
weather · 887 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$363 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$196 · open −$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$521
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses807 / 91
Open positions23
Markets (closed)898 / 887
History coverage51d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 23 History 898 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$70
14 days+$4
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? No 98¢ 99¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+18%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 79¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 62¢ $28 $19 −$10 (-34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 10? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? No 54¢ 1¢ $70 $1 −$69 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 22? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +922%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +1683%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 17? Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 22? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 21? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +549%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +445%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 24? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 19 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 21? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 23? Jun 14 $0 $0 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $49 +$8 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $278 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 −$16 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% +$40
world 7% +$112
finance 3% +$6
other 2% +$18
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $50 30m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $197 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $58 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $199 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $153 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $57 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $16 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +5.8% -4.3% 78% 12% -10.9%
≤30d 532 +6.3% -3.8% 91% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 898 +3.1% -6.7% 90% 7% -8.8%
all 898 +3.1% -6.7% 90% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 7% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 3% -17.5%
15% -23.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.12 · official $519.30 (match) · 3500 history records