Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6B 0x6bc2…8988 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized +$4 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%6W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-13.2%	-21.4%	43%	43%	-15.1%
≤30d	14	-13.2%	-21.4%	43%	43%	-15.1%
≤90d	14	-13.2%	-21.4%	43%	43%	-15.1%
all	14	-13.2%	-21.4%	43%	43%	-15.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.4%	43%	-15.1%
10%	-29.0%	43%	-23.2%
15%	-35.8%	43%	-30.6%
20%	-42.1%	36%	-37.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -38% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$4

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses6 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage4d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	50¢	52¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Over	38¢	32¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-16%)
Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Over	61¢	0¢	$9	$0	−$9 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+165%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$6	+$3	+50%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	Jun 14	$5	+$5	+100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 12	$5	−$2	-47%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$3	+$2	+73%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Jun 11	$3	+$3	+105%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
O/U 1.5 Rounds	SELL Over	100¢	$5	32m
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	61¢	$9	1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	66¢	$6	2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	57¢	$4	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	100¢	$9	2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	37¢	$2	6h
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	31¢	$2	6h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyle Daukaus	26¢	$2	7h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	$2	7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	58¢	$5	7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	50¢	$5	7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	2d
Fight to Go the Distance?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	38¢	$2	3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$3	3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY South Africa	60¢	$2	3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	3d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	BUY Spurs	48¢	$3	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$5	4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.78 · official $7.77 (match) · 28 history records