trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 26 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 96% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $149 | $149 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $232 in May? | Jun 01 | $113 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o | Jun 01 | $136 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 17 | $249 | $0 | +0% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 07 | $248 | +$1 | +0% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 27 | $248 | $0 | +0% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 19 | $247 | $0 | +0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 10 | $247 | +$1 | +0% |
| Mavericks vs. Bucks | Apr 01 | $246 | $0 | +0% |
| Warriors vs. Nuggets | Mar 31 | $246 | $0 | +0% |
| Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m? | Mar 25 | $1,047 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 23 | $1,046 | +$1 | +0% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | Mar 09 | $1,044 | +$1 | +0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Rockets | Mar 07 | $1,044 | +$1 | +0% |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | Mar 04 | $400 | +$21 | +5% |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | Mar 04 | $620 | +$3 | +0% |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner | Mar 02 | $1,008 | +$12 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? | Feb 28 | $1,007 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $40? | Feb 14 | $1,006 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? | Jan 30 | $950 | +$19 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 17? | Jan 18 | $1,001 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 02 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 02 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Jan 02 | $112 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Jan 02 | $340 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $456 | +$1 | +0% |