Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6bbb…dbf2 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%25W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$41
crypto 21% +$4
other 10% +$5
culture 8% +$1
economics 8% +$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses25 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage192d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $232 in May? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $249 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $248 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 27 $248 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $247 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $247 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 01 $246 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $246 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m? Mar 25 $1,047 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $1,046 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 09 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 04 $400 +$21 +5%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 04 $620 +$3 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Mar 02 $1,008 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? Feb 28 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $40? Feb 14 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $950 +$19 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $340 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $456 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $149 2h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $136 31d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $232 in May? BUY No 100¢ $113 31d
Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $249 45d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 100¢ $248 49d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $248 63d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $247 68d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $247 77d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 100¢ $246 85d
Warriors vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $246 87d
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m? BUY No 100¢ $1,047 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $1,046 106d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $105 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $393 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $5 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $541 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $1,044 110d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Clippers 100¢ $620 114d
Nuggets vs. Jazz BUY Nuggets 95¢ $400 114d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 99¢ $804 116d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 99¢ $205 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,007 119d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,006 133d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 98¢ $950 154d
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes $14 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,001 160d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $340 180d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $112 180d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $46 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.87 · official $248.87 (match) · 58 history records