Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bbb…0eae other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$1
politics 26% −$1
other 19% −$2
crypto 13% $0
tech 8% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 45 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage322d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $9 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $80 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $26 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $39 +$4 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 11h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $42 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $17 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $21 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $30 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $13 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $42 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $8 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $32 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.27 · official $37.27 (match) · 175 history records