Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6bba…2c0f sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
all 14 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 50% -9.2%
10% -20.8% 50% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 50% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 50% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$451 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage108d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $367 +$338 +92%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $717 +$403 +56%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 05 $902 −$902 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $550 +$415 +75%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $417 +$328 +79%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $698 +$428 +61%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $302 +$302 +100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 01 $197 −$197 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $372 −$372 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $895 +$970 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $6 1h
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $2 35d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $5 35d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Panthers 48¢ $902 102d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Kings 39¢ $400 102d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $198 103d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $168 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 64¢ $717 103d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $417 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $433 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $117 104d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $414 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $284 105d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,116 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $174 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $23 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $372 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $55 107d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $248 107d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $481 108d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $414 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $170 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.01 (match) · 30 history records