Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6bba…d7b8 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$6,078 (-56%) realized −$6,092 · open −$941
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,202per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,799
7 days−$3,949
14 days−$3,949
30 days−$6,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$6,895
sports 29% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -81.9% -83.6% 0% 0% -90.5%
≤30d 7 -60.0% -63.8% 14% 14% -68.0%
≤90d 7 -60.0% -63.8% 14% 14% -68.0%
all 7 -60.0% -63.8% 14% 14% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.8% 14% -68.0%
10% -67.2% 14% -71.1%
15% -70.4% 14% -73.9%
20% -73.3% 14% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,357 vs −$1,241 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$6,092
Unrealized−$941
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,202
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $1,132 $236 −$896 (-79%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 10¢ 6¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Curaçao 15¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2,300 $0 −$2,300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $515 −$49 -10%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $256 −$250 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,341 −$2,300 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $154 −$150 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,511 +$1,357 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,565 −$3,500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $646 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $466 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $256 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 46¢ $1,219 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,525 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 3d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 52¢ $1,511 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,565 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.60 · official $290.60 (match) · 17 history records