Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bb8…c8da sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$101 (+25%) realized +$99 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$119
other 38% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% +24.0%
≤30d 20 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% +24.0%
≤90d 20 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% +24.0%
all 20 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 55% +24.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 50% +12.1%
15% -2.0% 50% +1.3%
20% -11.6% 50% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.38 per $1 lost it wins $4.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 52¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 60¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $41 +$67 +164%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 −$4 -6%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +88%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +112%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +132%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$17 +163%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 +$6 +107%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 47¢ $14 31m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $17 31m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $22 32m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 39m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 45m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 45m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 46m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 46m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 47m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 47m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 47m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 48m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 48m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 49m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 49m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 49m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 50m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 50m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 50m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 50m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $34 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL No 78¢ $29 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 46¢ $10 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 93¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.53 · official $57.53 (match) · 87 history records