Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6B 0x6bb5…847b crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$273 (+1%) realized +$274 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate68%73W / 34L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$132
sports 28% +$159
other 14% −$49
tech 9% −$2
finance 5% $0
weather 5% +$16
economics 4% $0
world 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 4% -8.2%
≤90d 52 +4.3% -5.6% 69% 6% -8.2%
all 107 +21.2% +9.6% 68% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 7% -8.3%
10% -0.8% 7% -17.1%
15% -10.4% 5% -25.1%
20% -19.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses73 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage162d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 30? May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $44 +$18 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 20? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15? May 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Te May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 10? May 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 06 $2 +$4 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 1? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $363 −$8 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 09 $363 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $363 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 03 $361 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 1? Apr 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? Apr 01 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $354 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $354 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 30 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 28? Mar 29 $352 +$2 +0%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $664 +$39 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 26 $313 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 25 $313 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $598 +$24 +4%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 24 $283 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $283 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $47 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $46 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $45 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $2 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $0 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $46 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 9d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 361 history records