Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6bb3…758e sports 936 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38,331 (-4%) realized −$38,393 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%478W / 450L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,018per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$11,930est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$50,528
other 4% −$14,614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -40.3% -46.0% 43% 39% -67.3%
≤30d 177 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 54% -15.5%
≤90d 928 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 49% -15.8%
all 928 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 49% -15.8%
10% -22.5% 45% -23.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 39% -31.2%
20% -36.8% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,209) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$707 vs −$896 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$7,158
Realized−$38,393
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses478 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$11,930
Open positions8
Markets (closed)928 / 936
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$1,018
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 928 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 63¢ 56¢ $3,409 $3,055 −$354 (-10%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 29¢ 34¢ $2,357 $2,813 +$456 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $250 $412 +$162 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $500 $313 −$187 (-37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $187 −$12 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 57¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 46¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Zverev 85¢ 84¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1,870 +$1,261 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 28 $363 +$62 +17%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 27 $348 +$79 +23%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 27 $684 +$211 +31%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $1,083 −$1,071 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1,117 −$1,090 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 27 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $886 +$55 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $241 +$274 +114%
Amad Diallo: 2+ goals Jun 25 $898 +$108 +12%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1,809 +$480 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 24 $2,068 −$2,068 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10,064 −$10,064 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $5,479 +$2,765 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 23 $984 −$984 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 23 $528 −$528 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $8,875 −$8,875 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2,474 −$2,474 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $3,589 −$3,589 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $4,705 −$4,705 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 22 $74 +$19 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $517 +$129 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $131 +$49 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,084 +$2,677 +26%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $904 −$904 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,768 +$667 +38%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $846 −$846 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 17 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $930 +$993 +107%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $645 +$765 +119%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Jun 16 $755 +$251 +33%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $94 +$43 +46%
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$39 +260%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1,113 +$288 +26%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $490 +$610 +124%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $4,237 +$2,146 +51%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $3,344 −$719 -22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1,798 +$1,371 +76%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 Jun 16 $291 −$291 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 16 $601 −$601 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1,209 −$1,209 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 16 $4,328 −$4,328 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,870 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $363 12h
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 75¢ $378 12h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 81¢ $348 12h
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 77¢ $306 12h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $192 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $97 13h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 63¢ $2,444 13h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $906 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 85¢ $95 14h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 73¢ $97 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,083 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $0 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $33 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $1 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $56 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $0 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1,027 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $241 34h
Amad Diallo: 2+ goals BUY No 89¢ $898 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $396 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $490 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 86¢ $1,223 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 84¢ $176 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $1,633 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10,064 4d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $47 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $291 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,157.60 · official $7,158.99 (match) · 3500 history records