Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6bad…dff5 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%54W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$28
weather 8% −$12
sports 1% +$10
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +13.6% +2.8% 67% 59% -8.7%
≤30d 87 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 52% -12.2%
≤90d 87 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 52% -12.2%
all 87 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 52% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 52% -12.2%
10% -11.8% 39% -20.6%
15% -20.3% 28% -28.3%
20% -28.1% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses54 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage20d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$5 +441%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records