Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6bad…4d53 sports 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,948 (+10%) realized +$3,806 · open −$858
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%149W / 389L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$6,835
other 38% +$536
world 1% −$241
crypto 0% +$164
politics 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +80.2% +63.1% 21% 21% +324.4%
≤30d 92 +110.9% +90.8% 21% 21% +318.2%
≤90d 538 +23.2% +11.5% 28% 28% +28.4%
all 538 +23.2% +11.5% 28% 28% +28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 28% +28.4%
10% ← realistic here +0.8% 28% +16.1%
15% -8.9% 28% +4.9%
20% -17.8% 28% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$38 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3,716
Realized+$3,806
Unrealized−$858
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses149 / 389
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions52
Markets (closed)538 / 583
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $625 $512 −$112 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $240 $246 +$6 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $69 $177 +$108 (+157%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $183 $175 −$8 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $164 +$164 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $162 −$87 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $280 $154 −$126 (-45%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $140 $135 −$5 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $113 +$113 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $125 $112 −$13 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $85 $102 +$18 (+21%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $154 $92 −$62 (-40%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 18¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $157 $87 −$70 (-44%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $96 $87 −$9 (-9%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $174 $87 −$87 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $78 +$78 (+0%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $69 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 38¢ $0 $59 +$59 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $115 $57 −$57 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $57 +$57 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 +$76 +325%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $104 +$396 +378%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $169 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $72 +$428 +596%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$223 +291%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $144 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $254 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $114 +$553 +484%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $138 $0 +0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $168 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $420 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $522 $0 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $125 +$475 +380%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $222 +$1,078 +485%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $332 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $354 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $211 +$602 +286%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$76 +325%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$229 +896%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$29 +3348%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $123 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $92 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 9¢ $46 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $71 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 20h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 31h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,716.35 · official $3,716.61 (match) · 3500 history records