Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6bac…f068 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$56 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
sports 30% +$116
world 24% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -15.7% -23.8% 54% 46% -6.0%
≤30d 13 -15.7% -23.8% 54% 46% -6.0%
≤90d 13 -15.7% -23.8% 54% 46% -6.0%
all 13 -15.7% -23.8% 54% 46% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 46% -6.0%
10% -31.1% 38% -15.0%
15% -37.7% 8% -23.2%
20% -43.8% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 67¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 81¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 38¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ $69 $13 −$56 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $81 −$3 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $114 +$30 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $196 +$48 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $170 +$10 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $117 +$38 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $117 +$51 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $196 −$80 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$10 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $114 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $20 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $20 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 28h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 37h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $244 40h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $181 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 40h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $15 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $170 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $131 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $16 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $117 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.92 · official $113.93 (match) · 35 history records