trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 54% | 46% | -6.0% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 54% | 46% | -6.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 54% | 46% | -6.0% |
| all | 13 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 54% | 46% | -6.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.8% | 46% | -6.0% |
| 10% | -31.1% | 38% | -15.0% |
| 15% | -37.7% | 8% | -23.2% |
| 20% | -43.8% | 0% | -30.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 72¢ | 67¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-7%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 72¢ | 81¢ | $20 | $23 | +$3 (+13%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 38¢ | 40¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 5¢ | $69 | $13 | −$56 (-80%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 16 | $81 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $114 | +$30 | +26% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$16 | -79% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $196 | +$48 | +24% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $170 | +$10 | +6% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $101 | +$31 | +30% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $117 | +$38 | +33% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $38 | −$37 | -98% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$13 | -64% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $117 | +$51 | +44% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $196 | −$80 | -41% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Jun 10 | $49 | +$10 | +21% |