Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6bab…4372 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 32% +3.6%
≤30d 25 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 32% +3.6%
≤90d 25 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 32% +3.6%
all 25 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 32% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 32% +3.6%
10% -17.1% 32% -6.3%
15% -25.1% 24% -15.4%
20% -32.5% 16% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$18 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$11 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$4 -194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.21 · official $7.21 (match) · 42 history records