Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bab…0fe5
world · 190 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$36,315 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36,092 · open −$199
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 26 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,496
7 days+$5,526
14 days+$12,682
30 days+$23,387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $17,842 $20,326 +$2,485 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,711 $2,449 −$262 (-10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,911 $2,063 +$152 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,424 $2,061 −$364 (-15%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $1,750 −$250 (-12%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,695 $1,708 +$13 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,925 $1,662 −$262 (-14%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,048 $1,536 −$512 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,536 $1,472 −$64 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,240 $1,271 +$31 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,206 $1,262 +$55 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,112 +$112 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,105 $1,079 −$26 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,013 $956 −$56 (-6%)
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $820 $951 +$131 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,028 $932 −$95 (-9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $994 $923 −$71 (-7%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,020 $850 −$170 (-17%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,012 $817 −$195 (-19%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 82¢ $386 $364 −$22 (-6%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $991 $165 −$826 (-83%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? Yes 12¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $15,523 +$3,878 +25%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,031 +$124 +12%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,286 −$67 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 11 $1,637 +$230 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $1,038 +$330 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 10 $21,835 −$530 -2%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 10 $1,207 +$85 +7%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $12,921 +$3,252 +25%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,108 +$34 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 08 $4,212 +$435 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,384 +$178 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,918 −$2,488 -64%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,038 −$30 -3%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 07 $48 +$28 +58%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6,319 −$866 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $9,725 +$931 +10%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? Jun 05 $1,734 +$108 +6%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 05 $1,912 +$191 +10%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by May 31? Jun 04 $235 +$5 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,202 +$4,695 +90%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $11,572 +$2,372 +20%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $9,359 −$409 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $2,002 +$172 +9%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 31 $1,008 +$24 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $20,170 −$115 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 23 $22,007 +$4,889 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $32,382 +$5,038 +16%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 23 $1,232 +$68 +6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 18 $5,639 +$179 +3%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $2,336 +$476 +20%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 15 $132 −$131 -99%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? May 15 $3,893 +$316 +8%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 15 $263 −$14 -6%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 10 $1,243 −$20 -2%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $204 +$296 +146%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $202 +$148 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $2,191 −$3 -0%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $268 −$262 -98%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $724 −$711 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $10,520 +$611 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $2,937 +$21 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 09 $50 −$33 -66%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $3,107 −$3,094 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 01 $81 +$6 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 30 $40,161 +$12,046 +30%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 26 $9,849 +$496 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $4,330 +$496 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4,803 −$2,131 -44%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Apr 21 $42 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$4,088
other 30% +$32,919
tech 11% +$8,382
finance 6% −$500
sports 2% −$1,682
politics 2% −$7,403
crypto 0% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $3,676 44m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $28 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $690 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $728 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $50 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $83 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,006 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $45 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $45 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +7.5% -2.7% 69% 44% -3.7%
≤30d 33 +6.8% -3.4% 73% 36% +0.7%
≤90d 122 -2.5% -11.8% 61% 29% -3.6%
all 164 +11.4% +0.8% 63% 28% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 28% -4.0%
10% -8.8% 13% -13.2%
15% ← realistic here -17.6% 7% -21.6%
20% -25.7% 5% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,771.29 · official $45,771.29 (match) · 3500 history records