Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bab…1292
world · 71 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$18,172 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35,616 · open +$41,387
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$349,635
Realized−$35,616
Unrealized+$41,387
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions23
Markets (closed)65 / 71
Avg bet$39,203
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 23 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185,907
7 days−$64,483
14 days−$27,072
30 days−$58,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $57,012 $63,843 +$6,831 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $36,556 $49,949 +$13,393 (+37%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $40,588 $42,777 +$2,189 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $34,962 $35,768 +$806 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $31,974 $32,486 +$513 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $19,691 $23,789 +$4,098 (+21%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $17,006 $19,669 +$2,662 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $13,246 $15,880 +$2,634 (+20%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 97¢ $14,388 $15,081 +$692 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $13,323 $13,682 +$360 (+3%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $8,413 $8,927 +$514 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 18¢ 44¢ $2,000 $4,945 +$2,944 (+147%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $4,069 $4,413 +$343 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $2,108 $4,014 +$1,907 (+90%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 45¢ 98¢ $1,581 $3,420 +$1,839 (+116%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 85¢ $3,138 $3,227 +$89 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $2,080 $2,740 +$660 (+32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2,175 $2,212 +$38 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? No 80¢ 100¢ $1,381 $1,731 +$350 (+25%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 85¢ 99¢ $715 $835 +$120 (+17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $455 $193 −$262 (-58%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $62 $41 −$21 (-34%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-38%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $443 $1 −$442 (-100%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 34¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+153%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$122 -961%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Jun 12 $913 +$2,449 +268%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Jun 12 $409 −$401 -98%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17? Jun 12 $20,909 −$20,909 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,381 +$350 +25%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $3,888 +$314 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $599,919 +$121,110 +20%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $2,186 +$2,229 +102%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $8,024 −$3,824 -48%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $1,505 +$268 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,898 +$1,475 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,884 +$3,785 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $38,554 −$2,372 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $33,959 +$22,406 +66%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $133,572 +$62,099 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4,490 −$4,433 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4,222 −$4,222 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $67,561 −$40,000 -59%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 28 $18 +$14 +79%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 28 $476 +$1,725 +362%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $3,124 +$87 +3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $4,387 +$387 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 28 $2,917 +$9,311 +319%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $100,515 +$2,354 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $2,230 +$4,201 +188%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $7,274 −$7,274 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $11,000 −$9,470 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $11,112 −$4,808 -43%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $5,024 +$6,187 +123%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $5,472 −$473 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? May 18 $229,850 −$40,000 -17%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $122 +$100 +82%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 17 $136 +$562 +412%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 17 $9,251 +$1,633 +18%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $12,272 +$206 +2%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 17 $79,874 −$1,697 -2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $3,523 +$360 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $11,883 +$6,356 +54%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 15 $10,964 +$3,054 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$30,766
crypto 26% +$186,994
other 22% +$6,910
weather 8% −$40,000
politics 6% +$8,558
economics 1% +$1,493
sports 0% −$4,433
tech 0% +$1,739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $780 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 35¢ $315 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 35¢ $31 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 35¢ $19 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 35¢ $991 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12,396 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $8,889 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,440 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $11,283 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,487 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $149 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31,974 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 16¢ $1,388 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 14¢ $39 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -71.3% -74.1% 21% 14% -17.1%
≤30d 48 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 65 +71.0% +54.7% 52% 38% -11.0%
all 65 +71.0% +54.7% 52% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.7% 38% -11.0%
10% +39.9% 32% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here +26.4% 25% -27.3%
20% +14.0% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349,635.15 · official $349,634.74 (match) · 3500 history records