Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6ba6…09ea sports 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,193 (+29%) realized +$4,173 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%73W / 110L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$675
7 days+$701
14 days+$528
30 days+$1,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$836
other 29% +$3,745
politics 5% −$650
culture 1% +$144
crypto 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +65.8% +50.0% 63% 63% +33.5%
≤30d 23 +72.6% +56.2% 57% 57% +54.9%
≤90d 23 +72.6% +56.2% 57% 57% +54.9%
all 183 +7.6% -2.6% 40% 40% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 40% +19.3%
10% -11.9% 40% +7.9%
15% -20.4% 40% -2.5%
20% -28.2% 39% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$64 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized+$4,173
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses73 / 110
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions17
Markets (closed)183 / 200
History coverage440d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $401 $464 +$62 (+16%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $148 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $95 $86 −$9 (-9%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $39 +$7 (+22%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $74 $31 −$43 (-59%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $29 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $26 +$224 +874%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$58 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $76 +$77 +101%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $163 +$81 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$86 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $69 +$79 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 +$73 +238%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $144 +$140 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$74 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$69 +68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $149 +$66 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $168 −$165 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $203 −$122 -60%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $103 −$6 -6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $150 +$878 +585%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? Aug 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? Aug 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Aug 16 $50 +$85 +170%
Pirates vs. Cubs Aug 16 $50 +$89 +178%
Will Leeds United vs. Everton end in a draw? Aug 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Aug 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Rays vs. Giants Aug 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Tigers vs. Twins Aug 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Mariners vs. Mets Aug 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Rangers vs. Blue Jays Aug 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Phillies vs. Nationals Aug 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 14 $50 +$61 +122%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 14 $50 +$61 +123%
Nationals vs. Royals Aug 14 $50 +$82 +163%
Rays vs. Athletics Aug 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Aug 13 $50 +$66 +133%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 13 $50 +$69 +138%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 13 $100 +$56 +56%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Mariners vs. Orioles Aug 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Padres vs. Giants Aug 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Aug 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Aug 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Cardinals vs. Padres Aug 04 $50 +$29 +59%
Rangers vs. Mariners Aug 04 $50 +$66 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $48 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $28 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $36 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $37 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $76 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $163 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $101 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 17¢ $26 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $69 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $55 2d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $151 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $144 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 4d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $168 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.77 · official $1,363.03 (match) · 428 history records