Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba6…5530 crypto 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (565 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$642 (-0%) realized −$640 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%495W / 37L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day564.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$71
finance 0% −$45
tech 0% −$15
sports 0% +$104
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (565 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 532 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 532 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 9% -9.5%
all 532 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover564.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 9% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -29.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$137 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$640
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses495 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)532 / 532
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$436
Trades / day564.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $578 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $742 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $585 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $248 +$52 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $583 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $568 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $258 +$42 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $588 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $592 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $559 −$91 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $592 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $326 +$74 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $385 +$15 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $469 −$469 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $275 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $592 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $483 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $395 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $479 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $281 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $414 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $224 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $288 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $281 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $258 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $296 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $292 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $168 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.79 · official $5.79 (match) · 3500 history records