Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba6…6284 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-18%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$81
other 24% −$14
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 8% -33.2%
≤30d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 8% -33.2%
≤90d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 8% -33.2%
all 12 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 8% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 8% -33.2%
10% -35.2% 0% -39.6%
15% -41.4% 0% -45.4%
20% -47.2% 0% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -85%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 −$10 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records