Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6ba1…88c1 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$139 (+10%) realized +$141 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$170
crypto 14% −$70
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 14 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 14 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 50% -1.6%
all 14 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 50% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 50% -1.6%
10% -0.3% 43% -11.1%
15% -9.9% 43% -19.6%
20% -18.8% 43% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$35 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $49 +$43 +88%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $98 +$90 +92%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $165 +$33 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $202 −$70 -35%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $26 +$45 +174%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $43 +$27 +61%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $66 −$50 -76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $17 −$1 -6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $144 −$6 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $131 −$5 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 +$72 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $60 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $21 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $92 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $89 10h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $49 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 12h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 87¢ $189 14h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 16h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $68 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $98 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 66¢ $98 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 46¢ $61 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 57¢ $61 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 68¢ $70 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 64¢ $70 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 96¢ $70 31h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $74 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 34¢ $26 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $70 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $97 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $43 31h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $16 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $16 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $139 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $144 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $66 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.37 · official $145.37 (match) · 42 history records