Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b9d…a498 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized +$10 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$62
14 days+$22
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$11
other 37% +$5
crypto 8% −$36
sports 7% +$38
politics 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -47.4% -52.4% 38% 38% +8.3%
≤30d 10 -57.9% -61.9% 30% 30% -4.2%
≤90d 18 -48.7% -53.6% 39% 28% -6.8%
all 33 -28.2% -35.1% 52% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 33% -4.6%
10% -41.3% 15% -13.8%
15% -47.0% 12% -22.1%
20% -52.2% 6% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage161d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$45 +40%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $18 −$4 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $63 +$38 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 29 $1 $0 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 28 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 22 $23 −$14 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $158 +$11 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 12? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $2 +$1 +43%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $4 +$1 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $18 +$2 +14%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $202 +$31 +16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Jan 28 $35 +$1 +3%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 17 $20 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 16? Jan 16 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $91 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 55m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 82¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $111 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $4 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 44¢ $13 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $13 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $122 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 11d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 14d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 11¢ $1 52d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $9 53d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $0 55d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $1 55d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $8.20 (match) · 98 history records