Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b97…8d30 sports 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (263 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36,803 (-8%) realized −$38,555 · open +$1,752
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%149W / 420L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,403per market
Trades / day263.1pace
Fees−$6,619est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$20,520
other 1% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (263 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -66.7% -69.9% 16% 16% -72.6%
≤30d 569 -43.5% -48.8% 26% 26% -56.6%
≤90d 569 -43.5% -48.8% 26% 26% -56.6%
all 569 -43.5% -48.8% 26% 26% -56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover263.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.8% 26% -56.6%
10% -53.7% 26% -60.7%
15% ← realistic here -58.2% 24% -64.5%
20% -62.3% 21% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$2,066) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,277 vs −$1,549 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$15,797
Realized−$38,555
Unrealized+$1,752
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses149 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$6,619
Open positions12
Markets (closed)569 / 336
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$1,403
Trades / day263.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $2,500 $3,075 +$575 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 72¢ 74¢ $2,594 $2,636 +$42 (+2%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 37¢ 63¢ $1,520 $2,607 +$1,087 (+71%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 71¢ 72¢ $2,269 $2,285 +$16 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 54¢ 55¢ $2,232 $2,280 +$48 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ 48¢ $1,721 $1,686 −$35 (-2%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $369 $374 +$6 (+2%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 45¢ 46¢ $314 $321 +$7 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 45¢ 46¢ $302 $305 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 67¢ 68¢ $149 $151 +$2 (+1%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 36¢ 37¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 47¢ 48¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 410 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $2,135 −$2,135 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $6,478 −$6,478 -100%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 17 $706 −$706 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,948 −$4,948 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $1,769 −$1,769 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 17 $3,066 −$3,066 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 17 $595 −$1,030 -173%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 17 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $4,947 −$4,947 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 17 $3,013 −$3,013 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 17 $386 −$386 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 17 $2,405 −$2,405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 17 $956 −$956 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar Jun 17 $1,435 −$1,435 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Jun 17 $3,575 −$3,575 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $4,490 −$4,490 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $7,917 −$7,943 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 17 $1,913 −$1,913 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $4,785 −$4,785 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P Jun 17 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,665 −$2,665 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 17 $0 −$242 -219076%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $2,745 −$2,745 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 17 $4,256 −$4,256 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship Jun 17 $945 −$945 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stag Jun 17 $2,374 −$2,374 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $988 −$988 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 17 $3,192 −$3,192 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group St Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 17 $1,288 −$1,288 -100%
ITF Wuning: Patcharin Cheapchandej vs Yujia Huang Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 17 $2,893 −$2,893 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 17 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta Jun 17 $2,610 −$2,610 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 17 $1,815 −$1,815 -100%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CIS LAN Champio Jun 17 $3,865 −$3,865 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $2,642 −$2,642 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $270 3m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 67¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 22m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 22m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $6 22m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 47¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $847 43m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $62 46m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 67¢ $8 50m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 51m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 54m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $2,269 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 45¢ $108 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,797.18 · official $15,797.18 (match) · 3500 history records