Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b94…b660 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,888 (+10%) realized +$1,894 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$580
7 days+$2,034
14 days+$1,769
30 days+$1,769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,826
other 12% −$1,292
crypto 2% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +13.0% +2.2% 54% 54% +2.5%
≤30d 40 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 52% -0.4%
≤90d 40 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 52% -0.4%
all 40 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 52% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 52% -0.4%
10% -11.4% 52% -10.0%
15% -20.0% 50% -18.7%
20% -27.8% 48% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$476 vs −$432 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$1,894
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage8d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $528 $523 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $546 +$674 +124%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $509 −$502 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $500 +$500 +100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,254 −$1,240 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $693 −$687 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $546 +$674 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $452 −$451 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $273 +$235 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $278 +$229 +83%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $424 +$919 +217%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $303 −$296 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $222 +$286 +129%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $244 +$256 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $405 +$98 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $238 −$234 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $545 −$538 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 +$255 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $342 +$163 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $356 −$353 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $312 +$194 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $302 −$299 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $228 −$224 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $307 −$304 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $302 −$299 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $278 +$229 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $258 +$250 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $278 −$274 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $263 −$259 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $538 −$528 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $605 +$408 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $535 −$528 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $519 +$1,785 +344%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $581 +$690 +119%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,195 +$806 +67%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $517 +$395 +76%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $575 +$438 +76%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $500 +$500 +100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $411 −$405 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $507 −$499 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $537 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $546 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $509 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $282 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $6 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $39 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $160 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $12 16h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,254 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $693 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $546 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $116 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $89 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $1 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $273 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $303 2d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $388 2d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.61 · official $522.61 (match) · 91 history records