Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6B 0x6b92…b468 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+6%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$35
other 29% −$1
finance 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 44% -1.5%
≤30d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 44% -1.5%
≤90d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 44% -1.5%
all 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 44% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 44% -1.5%
10% -7.4% 22% -10.9%
15% -16.4% 22% -19.5%
20% -24.6% 0% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$13 +42%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $59 +$7 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $54 +$5 +8%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $45 +$10 +21%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$13 +42%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $78 −$14 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $45 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 99¢ $43 9m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 69¢ $30 14m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $51 16m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $50 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 16h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $59 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $54 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $45 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $43 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 21h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $10 22h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 95¢ $10 23h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 94¢ $30 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 65¢ $32 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 95¢ $48 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 94¢ $47 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records