Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6B 0x6b8f…52be other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$666 (+103%) realized +$668 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip

Net edge+87%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+87.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+107.0%	+87.3%	50%	50%	+99.7%
≤30d	6	+107.0%	+87.3%	50%	50%	+99.7%
≤90d	6	+107.0%	+87.3%	50%	50%	+99.7%
all	6	+107.0%	+87.3%	50%	50%	+99.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+87.3%	50%	+99.7%
10%	+69.3%	50%	+80.6%
15%	+53.0%	50%	+63.2%
20%	+38.0%	50%	+47.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +121% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +107% · $-wt +121% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$285 vs −$67 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized+$668

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage7d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$21	+$113	+549%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	+$104	+101%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$219	+$638	+291%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$133	38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	44¢	$206	39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	39h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	3d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	25¢	$219	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.00 · official $98.00 (match) · 10 history records