Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b8f…266b other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$1,256 (-27%) realized −$1,328 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$19
14 days−$203
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$294
other 28% −$32
politics 23% −$1,039
sports 6% +$15
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.6% -12.7% 45% 36% -12.4%
≤30d 65 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 34% -18.3%
≤90d 75 -9.2% -17.8% 44% 35% -18.7%
all 76 -10.3% -18.9% 43% 34% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 34% -40.1%
10% -26.6% 28% -45.8%
15% -33.7% 24% -51.0%
20% -40.2% 20% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$46 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 43
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions16
Markets (closed)76 / 92
History coverage418d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $61 $83 +$22 (+36%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $63 $55 −$8 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-78%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $145 +$34 +23%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$50 +195%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -92%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$56 +548%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $65 −$32 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $182 −$173 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 01 $83 +$22 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $130 +$44 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $82 −$73 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $86 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $228 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $126 +$15 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $302 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $16 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $24 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $20 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $11 +$21 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $26 −$15 -56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 +$121 +589%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 +$43 +84%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $37 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $135 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 77¢ $43 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 42h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL Yes 58¢ $19 42h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 45¢ $20 42h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 57¢ $20 42h
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 51¢ $20 42h
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 27¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.51 · official $614.76 (match) · 435 history records