Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b89…f5d2 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$6
politics 29% −$9
tech 14% +$50
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +2.0% -7.7% 31% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$620) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage212d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $971 −$2 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 13 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $981 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $984 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $980 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $621 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $121 +$1 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $121 +$1 +1%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $116 +$5 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $65 +$2 +3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $111 +$3 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $82 +$5 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $55 +$28 +51%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $52 +$3 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 26m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $102 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $106 28d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $969 35d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $971 35d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $973 35d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $974 35d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $975 35d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $976 35d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $978 35d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $981 35d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $982 35d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $984 35d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $979 35d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $980 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 58d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $617 63d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $618 64d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $618 64d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $618 64d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $618 64d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $619 64d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $619 64d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $620 64d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $620 64d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $620 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records