Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b88…1fd0 world 578 markets active 16h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+2%) realized +$129 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate53%290W / 258L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$29
14 days−$50
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$19
other 26% +$46
politics 14% +$30
sports 8% +$8
tech 3% +$2
crypto 1% −$3
finance 1% +$5
economics 1% −$4
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -47.5% -52.5% 11% 11% -40.7%
≤30d 148 +0.5% -9.1% 51% 27% -12.5%
≤90d 483 -2.6% -11.9% 49% 24% -9.3%
all 548 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 24% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 24% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 17% -17.2%
15% -27.5% 13% -25.2%
20% -34.6% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses290 / 258
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions31
Markets (closed)548 / 578
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 81¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 45¢ 46¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 10¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-30%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 73¢ 79¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 28¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 81¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 85¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? No 73¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? No 62¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No 57¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 15¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 42¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 37¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 44¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 43¢ 15¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? Yes 38¢ 13¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 65¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$5 -37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $34 −$8 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -93%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $14 −$4 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $23 −$12 -52%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -12%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 07 $6 +$1 +15%
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary elec Jun 07 $2 +$2 +78%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? Jun 07 $2 $0 -9%
UK Recession in 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +50%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -50%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 07 $3 −$1 -19%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 07 $3 +$1 +52%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 07 $2 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $4 $0 -5%
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $2 $0 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +42%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $6 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 40h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 46h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $5 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $4 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 33¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 14¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 41¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $8 3d
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $4 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 3d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 4d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 85¢ $4 7d
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 45¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.05 · official $101.04 (match) · 3500 history records